Coconut Oil Price Index Analysis in APAC: Q4 2025 Overview
Coconut Oil Prices in the Philippines:
In the Philippines, coconut oil prices averaged USD 2,947/MT during Q4 2025. The Coconut Oil Price Index reflected steady production levels supported by regular harvesting cycles. Export demand remained consistent, helping maintain pricing balance. Based on the Coconut Oil Price Forecast, prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, with movements closely linked to supply conditions rather than sudden demand changes.
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Regional Analysis: The price analysis can be extended to provide detailed coconut oil price information for the following list of countries.
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, Hongkong, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand, among other Asian countries.
Coconut Oil Price Index Analysis in APAC: Q4 2025 Overview
Coconut Oil Prices in Indonesia:
Indonesia recorded average prices of USD 2,748/MT in Q4 2025. The Coconut Oil Price Index showed relative stability, supported by adequate domestic availability and steady processing activity. Pricing movements remained smooth across the quarter. According to the Coconut Oil Price Forecast, near-term prices are likely to stay stable, with gradual adjustments influenced by seasonal output and export flows.
Coconut Oil Prices in Shri Lanka:
In Sri Lanka, prices averaged USD 2,929/MT during Q4 2025. The Coconut Oil Price Index reflected balanced supply conditions, supported by steady local consumption and export demand. Pricing fluctuations remained limited throughout the quarter. As per the Coconut Oil Price Forecast, prices are expected to follow a steady trend, shaped mainly by harvest yields and processing availability.
Coconut Oil Prices in India:
India reported significantly higher prices at USD 4,357/MT in Q4 2025. The Coconut Oil Price Index remained elevated due to strong domestic demand and limited supply growth. Import dependence further supported price levels. According to the Coconut Oil Price Forecast, prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, with moderate movements linked to consumption patterns.
Regional Analysis: The price analysis can be expanded to include detailed coconut oil price data for a wide range of APAC regions:
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, Hongkong, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand, among other Asian countries.
Coconut Oil Price Index Analysis in Europe: Q4 2025 Overview
Coconut Oil Prices in Netherland:
In the Netherlands, coconut oil prices averaged USD 2,805/MT during Q4 2025. The Coconut Oil Price Index stayed stable, influenced by import costs and steady demand from food and personal care sectors. Pricing movements were gradual across the quarter. Based on the Coconut Oil Price Forecast, prices are likely to remain range-bound, with limited short-term volatility.
Regional Analysis: The price analysis can be extended to provide detailed coconut oil price information for the following list of European countries.
Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal, and Greece, among other European countries.
Coconut Oil Price Trend, Index, History & Forecast – Latest Prices Updates
In Q4 2025/early 2026, coconut oil prices showed volatility: Philippines ~1,750 USD/MT (global avg forecast), India retail >Rs 440/liter (~2,600 USD/MT equiv.), USA CIF Rotterdam ~2,900 USD/MT, origin crude ~1,715-1,837 USD/MT post-29% weekly plunge. Asia held elevated amid supply crunches, Europe resisted origin drops.
Influencing Factors:
- Downstream Demand: Food processing, cosmetics, biofuels, and value-added products sustained pulls.
- Production Constraints: Copra shortages (South India -40%), El Niño droughts, unseasonal rains disrupted yields.
- Supply Dynamics: Philippines dominance met weather-hit outputs in Kerala/Tamil Nadu/Philippines.
- Logistics Challenges: Freight gaps, CIF-origin arbitrage (~1,000 USD/MT spread) inflated imports.
- Competition Pressures: Palm/sunflower shifts moderated consumption in price-sensitive regions.
- Policy Support: Kerala subsidies countered highs for festivals like Onam.
Recent Changes:
- Origin prices crashed 29% Aug 2025 (2,600→1,715 USD/MT) on copra flood (PHP 97→77/kg); CIF Rotterdam milder -65 USD/MT to 2,900.
- India wholesale +84%, retail +71% through 2025 on 40% copra cuts.
- Global avg eyed 1,800 USD/MT 2025 (+18% YoY from 1,519), minor 2026 dip to 1,750.
- Philippines/Kerala held firm despite processing disruptions.
Historical Context:
2025: Jan 1,976→Apr 2,587 USD/MT (+31%) post-2023 lows (1,000-1,200); 2024 avg 1,519 USD/MT (-21% from 2022 peak 2,319). Aug 2025 collapse reversed H1 surge; cycles tied to weather/supply shocks vs. 2022 war-era highs.
Forecast:
2026 projects mild softening to ~1,750 USD/MT avg (2.8% dip) amid yield recovery, though demand from biofuels/cosmetics holds floor. ~8% CAGR to 2030 via oleochemicals/food; volatility from weather/trade lingers, with India/EU premiums persistent.
Summary — Key Points
- The Coconut Oil Price Index remained firm across major regions in Q4 2025, supported by steady global demand.
- Producing countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka showed relatively balanced pricing, while India recorded significantly higher levels.
- Price movements during the quarter were gradual, with limited short-term volatility.
- Demand from food, personal care, and health-related applications continued to underpin prices.
- The Coconut Oil Price Forecast points to near-term stability, with moderate adjustments driven by supply conditions and consumption patterns.
FAQs on Coconut Oil Prices, Trends, and Forecasts
What factors are influencing the Coconut Oil Price Index in Q4 2025?
The Coconut Oil Price Index in Q4 2025 is influenced by harvest yields, weather conditions, processing capacity, and export availability. Steady demand from food, personal care, and pharmaceutical applications continues to support pricing levels across major producing and importing regions.
Why are coconut oil prices higher in India compared to other regions?
Higher prices in India reflect strong domestic consumption, limited local supply growth, and import reliance. The Coconut Oil Price Index remains elevated due to consistent demand and logistical costs, while other producing regions benefit from easier access to raw materials.
What does the Coconut Oil Price Forecast suggest for the near term?
The Coconut Oil Price Forecast indicates near-term firmness with moderate fluctuations. Balanced supply conditions and steady global consumption are expected to limit sharp price swings, keeping prices within a relatively predictable range.
How does global demand affect coconut oil pricing?
Global demand from food processing, cosmetics, and health-related products supports the Coconut Oil Price Index. Consistent consumption across these sectors helps maintain price stability, even when production levels vary seasonally.
How can businesses track reliable coconut oil price trends?
Businesses can follow the Coconut Oil Price Index and Coconut Oil Price Forecast through region-wise price benchmarks, historical trend analysis, and regularly updated pricing reports. Monitoring these indicators helps improve procurement planning and cost management.
How IMARC Pricing Database Can Help
The latest IMARC Group study, Coconut Oil Prices, Trend, Chart, Demand, Market Analysis, News, Historical and Forecast Data 2025 Edition, presents a detailed analysis of the Coconut Oil price trend, offering key insights into global Coconut Oil market dynamics. This report includes comprehensive price charts, which trace historical data and highlights major shifts in the market.
The analysis delves into the factors driving these trends, including raw material costs, production fluctuations, and geopolitical influences. Moreover, the report examines Coconut Oil demand, illustrating how consumer behaviour and industrial needs affect overall market dynamics. By exploring the intricate relationship between supply and demand, the prices report uncovers critical factors influencing current and future prices.
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